Could an African Cardinal Be the Next Pope?

Feb 12, 2013 9:09am

Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson attends a Mass for Pope John Paul II in St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican, in this April 13, 2005 photo. (Pier Paolo Cito/AP Photo)

By BAZI KANANI and PHOEBE NATANSON

ROME – After Pope Benedict XVI became the first pope in hundreds of years to voluntarily resign, the Roman Catholic Church could be in for another first in recent history—an African pope.

Two African cardinals are rumored to be among the top candidates to succeed Pope Benedict, and many Vatican watchers believe the election of a non-European pope is a very real possibility at a time when the majority of the church’s growth is in the developing world.

Cardinal Peter Turkson, 64, of Ghana, is considered to be near the top of the short list of likely successors.  (British bookmakers offering odds on the next pope have already made Turkson their 3 to 1 favorite.)

After serving for more than 30 years as an ordained priest, Turkson was made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003.  He currently serves as president of the Vatican’s Council for Justice and Peace.  Colleagues describe him as a “people person” with excellent communication skills.  He is considered a conservative who is unlikely to steer the church in a new direction on issues such as contraception, abortion and gay rights.

Turkson outlined for ABC News Monday the challenge facing Benedict’s successor.

“The new pope has to be very sensitive to the present condition of humanity and yet recognize the task of having to still keep the Gospel in its pure form. That’s a big challenge that we all pray for,” he said.

“I think what we should be looking for, probably what we should be doing rather is recognizing the nature of the church… pray God will provide us with the leadership that can confidently lead the humanity in the church in the year ahead. The challenges are not going to cease. They’re going to be increasing and we need somebody with God’s guidance to get us through all this,” Turkson said.

Cardinal Francis Arinze, 80, of Nigeria is again being mentioned as a possible pope, as he was in 2005 when Pope Benedict was elected.  Arinze served as a priest for 27 years and became one of the world’s youngest bishops before Pope John Paul II elevated him to cardinal in 1985.

He was appointed to lead the Vatican’s Council for Interreligious Dialogue, and colleagues compliment his ability to cooperate with people of other faiths.  Arinze is also considered a conservative.

If the conclave of the College of Cardinals were to choose either Turkson or Arinze, it would be the first selection of an African pope in more than 1,500 years.  Scholars say in the first five centuries of the church there were three popes from North Africa. But the selection of Turkson or Arinze would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa and the first-ever black pope.

Vatican watchers also believe it is possible a Latin American pope could be selected.  The cardinals considered leading candidates from Latin America are said to be Leonardo Sandri from Argentina, Oscar Maradiaga from Honduras, Odilo Scherer from Brazil, and Joao Braz de Aviz from Brazil.

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Pope Benedict stepping down, cites poor health

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - Pope Benedict shocked the world on Monday by saying he no longer had the mental and physical strength to cope with his ministry, in an announcement that left his aides "incredulous" and will make him the first pontiff to step down since the Middle Ages.

The German-born Pope, 85, hailed as a hero by conservative Roman Catholics and viewed with suspicion by liberals, told cardinals in Latin that his strength had deteriorated recently. He will step down on February 28 and the Vatican expects a new Pope to be chosen by the end of March.

Vatican spokesman Father Federico Lombardi said the Pope had not decided to resign because of "difficulties in the papacy" and the move had been a surprise, indicating that even his inner circle was unaware that he was about to quit.

The Pope does not fear schism in the Church after his resignation, the spokesman said.

The Pope's leadership of 1.2 billion Catholics has been beset by child sexual abuse crises that tarnished the Church, one address in which he upset Muslims and a scandal over the leaking of his private papers by his personal butler.

The pope told the cardinals that in order to govern "...both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to me.

"For this reason, and well aware of the seriousness of this act, with full freedom I declare that I renounce the ministry of Bishop of Rome, Successor of Saint Peter."

He also referred to "today's world, subject to so many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep relevance for the life of faith."

The last Pope to resign willingly was Celestine V in 1294 after reigning for only five months, his resignation was known as "the great refusal" and was condemned by the poet Dante in the "Divine Comedy". Gregory XII reluctantly abdicated in 1415 to end a dispute with a rival claimant to the papacy.

"NO OUTSIDE PRESSURE," JUST ADVANCING AGE

Before he was elected Pope, the former Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was known by such critical epithets as "God's rottweiler" because of his stern stand on theological issues.

But after several years into his new job Benedict showed that he not only did not bite but barely even barked.

In recent months, the pope has looked increasingly frail in public, sometimes being helped to walk by those around him.

Lombardi ruled out depression or uncertainty as being behind the resignation, saying the move was not due to any specific illness, just advancing age.

The Pope had shown "great courage, determination" aware of the "great problems the church faces today", he said, adding the timing may have reflected the Pope's desire to avoid the exhausting rush of Easter engagements.

There was no outside pressure and Benedict took his "personal decision" in the last few months, he added.

Israel's Chief Rabbi praised Benedict's inter-faith outreach and wished him good health. The Archbishop of Canterbury, head of the Anglican Church, said he had learned of the Pope's decision with a heavy heart but complete understanding.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Pope's decision must be respected if he feels he is too weak to carry out his duties. British Prime Minister David Cameron said: "He will be missed as a spiritual leader to millions."

The pontiff would step down from 2 p.m. ET on February 28, leaving the office vacant until a successor was chosen to Benedict who succeeded John Paul, one of history's most popular pontiffs, the spokesman said.

Elected to the papacy on April 19, 2005 when he was 78 - 20 years older than John Paul was when he was elected - Benedict ruled over a slower-paced, more cerebral and less impulsive Vatican.

MEEK DEMEANOUR, STEELY INTELLECT

But while conservatives cheered him for trying to reaffirm traditional Catholic identity, his critics accused him of turning back the clock on reforms by nearly half a century and hurting dialogue with Muslims, Jews and other Christians.

Under the German's meek demeanor lay a steely intellect ready to dissect theological works for their dogmatic purity and debate fiercely against dissenters.

After appearing uncomfortable in the limelight at the start, he began feeling at home with his new job and showed that he intended to be Pope in his way.

Despite great reverence for his charismatic, globe-trotting predecessor -- whom he put on the fast track to sainthood and whom he beatified in 2011 -- aides said he was determined not to change his quiet manner to imitate John Paul's style.

A quiet, professorial type who relaxed by playing the piano, he managed to show the world the gentle side of the man who was the Vatican's chief doctrinal enforcer for nearly a quarter of a century.

The first German pope for some 1,000 years and the second non-Italian in a row, he traveled regularly, making about four foreign trips a year, but never managed to draw the oceanic crowds of his predecessor.

The child abuse scandals hounded most of his papacy. He ordered an official inquiry into abuse in Ireland, which led to the resignation of several bishops.

STRING OF SCANDALS

Scandal from a source much closer to home hit in 2012 when the pontiff's butler, responsible for dressing him and bringing him meals, was found to be the source of leaked documents alleging corruption in the Vatican's business dealings, causing an international furor.

He confronted his own country's past when he visited the Nazi death camp at Auschwitz.

Calling himself "a son of Germany", he prayed and asked why God was silent when 1.5 million victims, most of them Jews, died there during World War Two.

Ratzinger served in the Hitler Youth during World War Two when membership was compulsory. He was never a member of the Nazi party and his family opposed Adolf Hitler's regime.

But his trip to Germany also prompted the first major crisis of his pontificate. In a university lecture he quoted a 14th century Byzantine emperor as saying Islam had only brought evil to the world and that it was spread by the sword.

After protests that included attacks on churches in the Middle East and the killing of a nun in Somalia, the Pope later said he regretted any misunderstanding the speech caused.

In a move that was widely seen as conciliatory, in late 2006 he made a historic trip to predominantly Muslim Turkey and prayed in Istanbul's Blue Mosque with a Turkish Mufti.

But months later, former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami met the Pope and said wounds between Christians and Muslims were still "very deep" as a result of the Regensburg speech.

(Writing by Peter Millership; editing by Janet McBride and Ralph Boulton)

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US tornadoes strike southern states, 60 injured

MIAMI: Several powerful tornadoes ripped through the southern US states of Mississippi and Alabama injuring at least 60 people and destroying hundreds of homes at the weekend, emergency officials said Monday.

The city of Hattiesburg in Mississippi's Forrest County bore the brunt of the storms, with heavy rain continuing to lash the region and create a risk of flooding.

"Two people were critically hurt in Lemar County right next to Hattiesburg, but no deaths have been reported at this stage," Greg Flynn, a spokesman for the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA), told AFP.

"Around 60 people are reported injured, but fortunately most injuries are minor," he said.

The bad weather, however, destroyed hundreds of homes and caused damage to the campus of the University of Southern Mississippi, authorities said.

A spokeswoman for the Alabama Emergency Management Agency (AEMA) said that while the area was hit by bad weather on Sunday it had so far received no reports of injuries.

The National Weather Service said flooding and flash flooding will become a concern if rainfall continues to add up across the lower Mississippi valley.

-AFP/ac

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Had Vajpayee been PM, Afzal's execution wouldn’t have happened: Ex-RAW chief

NEW DELHI: Calling the hanging of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru a setback to the process of reconciliation and normalcy in Kashmir, former chief of Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) and an expert on the valley AS Dulat has said that had AB Vajpayee been the Prime Minister he would have never let Guru hang.

"Even though BJP had been demanding Guru's hanging, Atal Bihari Vajpayee would have not done it had he been heading the government," Dulat told TOI. Dulat headed RAW in 1999-2000 and was subsequently appointed as advisor to the PM (Vajpayee) on Kashmir. He was instrumental in shaping BJP's Kashmir strategy and an important player in Track II diplomacy.

Neither Congress nor BJP, which has both demanded and gloated over Guru's hanging, are likely to find the comment palatable. However, Dulat is firm in his opinion that the hanging has come at a wrong time when the valley was moving towards normalcy. "It has the potential to take the valley several years back. I was not expecting this to happen," he said.

Sentiments over Guru have been strong in the valley and as has been evident from the protests following the hanging — three civilians are reported dead in the clashes between protestors and security forces despite the latter having been told to exercise utmost restraint — things always have the potential to spiral out of control in Kashmir.

Even as the establishment has been banking on the anticipation of a good tourist season, strict but cautious policing and a youth geared more towards reaping benefits of a rising economy than causing long-drawn stir, observers say Kashmir can be unpredictable.

"Kashmiris are smart people. They can reap economic benefits and still vent their anger. They are also politically very conscious. Already the security clampdown is being called Gaza-isation of the valley. Also, while the youth is economically inclined, it is also very impatient," said an expert.

Sources also said as much of a political decision it may have been for the Congress, the party may not benefit from it in the upcoming elections. The leapfrogging to hang Guru over Beant Singh and Rajiv Gandhi killers will only hurt its secular image. In fact, it's the BJP that will be able to consolidate its support base as it has been demanding the hanging for several years, sources said.

However, according to Dulat, the biggest loser in this entire episode is J&K CM Omar Abdullah. "He has completely lost his credibility in the valley," says Dulat. Not surprisingly, Abdullah has been constantly distancing himself from the decision and has castigated Centre over it.

Dulat says the government must now devise a strategy to find a way out of the situation. "And the solution should attempt to go beyond law and order mechanisms. Militancy is not the thing to fear in the valley, but public anger is," he added.

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What heals traumatized kids? Answers are lacking

CHICAGO (AP) — Shootings and other traumatic events involving children are not rare events, but there's a startling lack of scientific evidence on the best ways to help young survivors and witnesses heal, a government-funded analysis found.

School-based counseling treatments showed the most promise, but there's no hard proof that anxiety drugs or other medication work and far more research is needed to provide solid answers, say the authors who reviewed 25 studies. Their report was sponsored by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

According to research cited in the report, about two-thirds of U.S. children and teens younger than 18 will experience at least one traumatic event, including shootings and other violence, car crashes and weather disasters. That includes survivors and witnesses of trauma. Most will not suffer any long-term psychological problems, but about 13 percent will develop symptoms of post-traumatic stress, including anxiety, behavior difficulties and other problems related to the event.

The report's conclusions don't mean that no treatment works. It's just that no one knows which treatments are best, or if certain ones work better for some children but not others.

"Our findings serve as a call to action," the researchers wrote in their analysis, published online Monday by the journal Pediatrics.

"This is a very important topic, just in light of recent events," said lead author Valerie Forman-Hoffman, a researcher at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

She has two young children and said the results suggest that it's likely one of them will experience some kind of trauma before reaching adulthood. "As a parent I want to know what works best," the researcher said.

Besides the December massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut, other recent tragedies involving young survivors or witnesses include the fatal shooting last month of a 15-year-old Chicago girl gunned down in front of a group of friends; Superstorm Sandy in October; and the 2011 Joplin, Mo., tornado, whose survivors include students whose high school was destroyed.

Some may do fine with no treatment; others will need some sort of counseling to help them cope.

Studying which treatments are most effective is difficult because so many things affect how a child or teen will fare emotionally after a traumatic event, said Dr. Denise Dowd, an emergency physician and research director at Children's Mercy Hospitals and Clinics in Kansas City, Mo., who wrote a Pediatrics editorial.

One of the most important factors is how the child's parents handle the aftermath, Dowd said.

"If the parent is freaking out" and has difficulty controlling emotions, kids will have a tougher time dealing with trauma. Traumatized kids need to feel like they're in a safe and stable environment, and if their parents have trouble coping, "it's going to be very difficult for the kid," she said.

The researchers analyzed 25 studies of treatments that included anti-anxiety and depression drugs, school-based counseling, and various types of psychotherapy. The strongest evidence favored school-based treatments involving cognitive behavior therapy, which helps patients find ways to cope with disturbing thoughts and emotions, sometimes including talking repeatedly about their trauma.

This treatment worked better than nothing, but more research is needed comparing it with alternatives, the report says.

"We really don't have a gold standard treatment right now," said William Copeland, a psychologist and researcher at Duke University Medical Center who was not involved in the report. A lot of doctors and therapists may be "patching together a little bit of this and a little bit of that, and that might not add up to the most effective treatment for any given child," he said.

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Online:

Pediatrics: http://www.pediatrics.org

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Vatican Says Pope Benedict Will Resign Feb. 28

Pope Benedict XVI announced today that he will resign Feb. 28, saying his role requires "both strength of mind and body."

The pope's decision makes him the first pontiff to resign in nearly 600 years. A conclave to elect a new pope will take place before the end of March. The 85-year-old pope announced the decision to resign in Latin during a meeting of Vatican cardinals.

FULL COVERAGE: Pope Benedict XVI Resignation

"After having repeatedly examined my conscience before God, I have come to the certainty that my strengths due to an advanced age are no longer suited to an adequate exercise of the Petrine ministry," he said. "I am well aware that this ministry, due to its essential spiritual nature, must be carried out not only by words and deeds but no less with prayer and suffering."

Pope Benedict XVI was the oldest pope to be elected at age 78 on April 19, 2005. He was the first German pope since the 11th century and his reign will rank as one of the shortest in history at seven years, 10 months and three days.

RELATED: Pope Benedict XVI Resigns: The Statement

The last pope to resign was Pope Gregory XII, who stepped down in 1415.

Vatican officials said they've noticed that he had been getting weaker, while Benedict said he is aware of the significance of his decision and made it freely.

Vatican Communications Director Greg Burke told ABC News that he was surprised but wasn't shocked by the announcement, and cited an interview in which Benedict said a pope not only could resign, but should resign.

Pope Benedict XVI Resignation: Who Will Be Next? Watch Video

"[Pope Benedict] is slowing a bit, and there's nothing immediately serious or grave. He has an older brother. He just thought the demands of the job were too much for his physical well being."

INTERACTIVE: Key Dates in the Life of Pope Benedict XVI

Benedict's brother, the Rev. Georg Ratzinger, had shared his concerns about the pope's health in September 2011, telling Germany's Bunte magazine that he should resign if health issues made the work impossible. More recently, Ratzinger has apparently cited his brother's difficulty in walking and his age, saying that Benedict had been advised by his doctor to cease transatlantic trips and that he had been considering stepping down for months, according to the German DPA news agency.

Among other ailments, the pope reportedly suffers from arthritis and arthrosis -- a debilitating joint-degeneration condition -- and his declining health drew attention about a year ago when he used a cane at the airport on his way to a trip to Mexico and Cuba.

Benedict has been a less charismatic leader than his predecessor, John Paul II, but tending to the world's roughly 1 billion Catholics still requires stamina Benedict seems to believe he now lacks.

PHOTOS: Pope Benedict XVI Through the Years

"Obviously, it's a great surprise for the whole church, for everyone in the Vatican and I think for the whole Catholic world," the Rev. John Wauck, a U.S. priest of the Opus Dei, told "Good Morning America" today. "But, at the same time, it's not completely surprising given what the pope had already written about the possibility of resigning.

"It's clear in terms of his mental capacity he's in excellent shape, he's very sharp, and so when he says he's making this official with whole freedom, it's clear that that's the case, that makes one believe that this is an act taken out of a sense of responsibility and love for the church."

It is a road that leads back to the 1930s.

Ratzinger started seminary studies in 1939 at the age of 12. In his memoirs, he wrote of being enrolled in Hitler's Nazi youth movement against his will when he was 14 in 1941, when membership was compulsory. In 1943, he was drafted into a Nazi anti-aircraft unit in Munich. He says he was soon let out because he was a priest in training.

He returned home only to find an army draft notice waiting for him in the fall of 1944.

As World War II came to an end, the 18-year-old Ratzinger deserted the army. In May 1945, U.S. troops arrived in his town and he was sent to a prisoner-of-war camp.

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Netanyahu to discuss Iran, Syria, Palestinians with Obama

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Iran's nuclear ambitions, the civil war in Syria and stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts will top the agenda of U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday.

"It is a very important visit that will emphasize the strong alliance between Israel and the United States," Netanyahu, who has had a testy relationship with Obama, told his cabinet.

The White House announced on Tuesday that Obama plans to visit Israel, the West Bank and Jordan this spring, raising prospects of a new U.S. push to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts frozen for the past two years.

The White House gave no exact dates for the trip, Obama's first to Israel since taking office. Israel's Channel 10 television station cited unnamed sources in Washington last week saying the visit to Israel would start on March 20.

In public remarks at the cabinet session, Netanyahu put Iran at the top of his list of talking points with Obama and referred only in general terms to peace efforts with the Palestinians, stopping short of setting a revival of bilateral negotiations as a specific goal of the visit.

"The president and I spoke about this visit and agreed that we would discuss three main issues ... Iran's attempt to arm itself with nuclear weapons, the unstable situation in Syria ... and the efforts to advance the diplomatic process of peace between the Palestinians and us," Netanyahu said.

U.S.-hosted negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians collapsed in September 2010 in a dispute over Israeli settlement-building in the occupied West Bank, land captured in a 1967 war and which Palestinians seek as part of a future state that includes Gaza and East Jerusalem.

Obama and Netanyahu discussed the coming trip in a January 28 telephone call.

COALITION TALKS

The visit will take place only after Netanyahu puts together a new governing coalition following his narrower-than-expected victory in Israel's January 22 election.

Netanyahu, who heads the right-wing Likud party, has begun talks with prospective political partners and still has up to five weeks to complete the process.

Citing the dangers Israel faces from the "earthquake that is happening around us", a reference to Arab upheaval in the region and the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, Netanyahu said Obama's visit now was particularly important.

Obama's tensions with Netanyahu have been aggravated by the Israeli leader's demands for U.S. "red lines" on Iran's nuclear program - something the president has resisted, though he has said military options are on the table if sanctions and diplomacy fail.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday that Tehran would not negotiate about its nuclear program under pressure, and would talk to its adversaries only if they stopped "pointing the gun".

Iran dismisses Western suspicions that its nuclear program is aimed at building weapons. Israel is widely believed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal.

Netanyahu has insisted he will stick to the red line laid down in September, when he told the United Nations that Iran should not have enough enriched uranium to make even a single warhead.

He gave a rough deadline of summer 2013, and Israeli political commentators have speculated that Obama had opted to visit Israel before that date to caution Netanyahu against any go-it-alone attack against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Obama visited Israel as a presidential candidate in 2008 but drew Republican criticism for not travelling there in his first term. His Republican predecessor, former President George W. Bush, also waited until his second term to go to Israel.

(Editing by Matthew Tostevin)

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Three Korean doctors slain in north Nigeria: police

KANO, Nigeria: Men armed with knives slit the throats of three South Korean doctors in a pre-dawn attack Sunday in a volatile town in northeastern Nigeria in the latest in a spate of killings of foreigners in recent months, police said.

The attack in Potiskum also came just two days after gunmen killed at least 10 people in horrifying attacks on two Nigerian polio clinics in a new blow to the campaign to wipe out disease, but it was not clear if the incidents were related.

Yobe State police commissioner Sanusi Rufa'i would not say if the Islamist group Boko Haram, which has been active in Potiskum, was responsible for Sunday's killings, but that the attack was being investigated.

He said unknown attackers scaled the fence of an apartment housing the three doctors at around 1:00 am and slit their throats, initially describing the victims as Chinese.

"Further investigations have shown that the victims were Korean nationals and not Chinese as earlier stated. They were doctors from South Korea," Rufa'i told AFP, in comments confirmed by a senior military official in the state.

Residents said the Koreans, whose bodies were found by neighbours, were employees of the state ministry of health and had been living in the city for one year.

In Seoul, the foreign ministry said it was checking the reports, but noted that few Koreans live in the town.

"The chance that the slain would be Koreans is not high," a foreign ministry official told Yonhap news agency. "But we are checking further related situations via diverse channels."

A local resident said the bodies of the Koreans were found in their room by neighbours who alerted security agents,

"People became worried when the doctors did not open their door in the morning," one resident who did not want to be named told AFP.

He said the victims had their throats slit, but it was not immediately clear if the assailants also came with guns.

"It is still premature to point any accusing fingers but we have commenced an investigation to unravel the killings," said Rufa'i, adding: "No arrest has been made."

Sunday's attack was the latest in a spate of killings of foreigners, especially Chinese nationals, in the country's restive northeast.

In November, gunmen shot dead two Chinese construction workers in nearby Borno State, the stronghold of the Boko Haram extremists.

Three other Chinese nationals have also been killed in separate attacks in the region.

Although no group claimed responsibility for the attacks, they were similar to previous strikes against foreigners by Boko Haram.

Violence linked to Boko Haram is believed to have left some 3,000 people dead since 2009, including killings by the security forces.

The killings in Potiskum, which lies about 100 kilometres (60 miles) from the state capital Damaturu, followed attacks on other health workers in the northern city of Kano on Friday.

Nine women and a man were shot dead in two separate attacks in Kano after a local cleric denounced polio vaccination campaigns and some local radio stations aired conspiracy theories about the vaccine being a Western plot to harm Muslims.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan condemned Friday's killings, describing them as "dastardly terrorist attacks" and vowed to track down the perpetrators.

Boko Haram has claimed to be fighting for the creation of an Islamic state, but its demands have shifted repeatedly and it is believed to include various factions. Criminal gangs and imitators are also suspected of carrying out violence under the guise of the group.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation and largest oil producer, is divided between a mainly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south.

- AFP/ck

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Many feared dead as stampede breaks out at Allahabad railway station

ALLAHABAD: At least six persons are feared and several injured in a stampede that broke out at Allahabad railway station on Sunday evening.

According to TV reports, the stampede broke out after a railing on a footoverbridge collapsed at the platform number 6 of Allahabad railway station.

Eyewitnesses, however, said that the stampede was triggered after police lathicharged people in order to control the huge rush at the station.

Many of the injured complained that administration delayed action by over 2 hours following the tragic incident.

Over three crore people converged at the Sangam for a holy dip on the occasion of " Mauni Amavasya" on Sunday, considered the most auspicious day during the 12-yearly congregation.

(More details are awaited)

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After early start, worst of flu season may be over

NEW YORK (AP) — The worst of the flu season appears to be over.

The number of states reporting intense or widespread illnesses dropped again last week, and in a few states there was very little flu going around, U.S. health officials said Friday.

The season started earlier than normal, first in the Southeast and then spreading. But now, by some measures, flu activity has been ebbing for at least four weeks in much of the country. Flu and pneumonia deaths also dropped the last two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

"It's likely that the worst of the current flu season is over," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said.

But flu is hard to predict, he and others stressed, and there have been spikes late in the season in the past.

For now, states like Georgia and New York — where doctor's offices were jammed a few weeks ago — are reporting low flu activity. The hot spots are now the West Coast and the Southwest.

Among the places that have seen a drop: Lehigh Valley Hospital-Cedar Crest in Allentown, Pa., which put up a tent outside its emergency room last month to help deal with the steady stream of patients. There were about 100 patients each day back then. Now it's down to 25 and the hospital may pack up its tent next week, said Terry Burger, director of infection control and prevention for the hospital.

"There's no question that we're seeing a decline," she said.

In early December, CDC officials announced flu season had arrived, a month earlier than usual. They were worried, saying it had been nine years since a winter flu season started like this one. That was 2003-04 — one of the deadliest seasons in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths.

Like this year, the major flu strain was one that tends to make people sicker, especially the elderly, who are most vulnerable to flu and its complications

But back then, that year's flu vaccine wasn't made to protect against that bug, and fewer people got flu shots. The vaccine is reformulated almost every year, and the CDC has said this year's vaccine is a good match to the types that are circulating. A preliminary CDC study showed it is about 60 percent effective, which is close to the average.

So far, the season has been labeled moderately severe.

Like others, Lehigh Valley's Burger was cautious about making predictions. "I'm not certain we're completely out of the woods," with more wintry weather ahead and people likely to be packed indoors where flu can spread around, she said.

The government does not keep a running tally of flu-related deaths in adults, but has received reports of 59 deaths in children. The most — nine — were in Texas, where flu activity was still high last week. Roughly 100 children die in an average flu season, the CDC says

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

According to the CDC report, the number of states with intense activity is down to 19, from 24 the previous week, and flu is widespread in 38 states, down from 42.

Flu is now minimal in Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

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Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

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